A public ledger of a real-money leveraged ETF strategy
I run a rules-based strategy on TQQQ, the 3x Nasdaq-100 ETF, with my own money. A bot executes it. Every trade is documented publicly, with timestamps, on my live track record page: https://www.tradingautomation.de/live.
This newsletter is the ledger around that account. Once a week I write down what the system did, what the rules said, and what I learned. Once a month I publish a piece of the research behind it, including the experiments that failed. In this niche, failed experiments are the part almost nobody publishes, and the part you learn the most from.
What you will not get here: stock tips, personal advice, or promises. Leveraged ETFs are brutal instruments. An unmanaged 3x Nasdaq position would have lost more than 80% of its value at times over the last 25 years. My own backtests include a drawdown worse than 48%. If someone sells you 3x leverage without those numbers, close the tab.
Why I publish everything: backtest screenshots are cheap and this niche is full of them. A real account following published rules in public is the only claim that can be checked. So that is the format: real money, published rules, every trade visible, negative results included.
Who writes this: Dennis Gerich. I built the strategy, the backtesting engine and the bot that trades it. The German-language documentation of this account has run in public since 2025.
Free subscribers get the Weekly Ledger every week. A paid tier (same-day trade documentation and the full research archive) may follow later; the free edition will always contain the substance.
The Honest Curve is a publication that documents my own real-money account and my research. It is general information addressed to all readers, not personalized investment advice, and no recommendation to buy or sell any security. Leveraged ETFs are volatile and can lose most of their value; my worst backtested drawdown exceeded 48%, and an unmanaged 3x position would have lost more than 80% at times. I hold positions in the instruments I write about and I trade them according to the published rules. Past performance, live or backtested, does not predict future results.
